Market Updates
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UNH
MCR hits 89.9% — EPS guidance cut 4× in 2025, CEO replaced, DOJ investigation ongoing
Mar 2026
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Breaking
Medical Cost Ratio surged to 89.9% vs 83–85% historical norm. EPS guidance cut from $29.50 → $16.25. DOJ investigation ongoing. Management guides double-digit recovery from 2027 — requires MCR stabilisation, DOJ resolution, and Optum restructuring simultaneously.
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DOCS
Pharma budget freeze hits Doximity — Q4 revenue guided at just +4% growth
Mar 2026
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Watch
16 of top 20 pharma companies signed MFN agreements, causing delayed bookings. Q4 guided at +4% vs +23% in Q2. Moat intact: 117% revenue retention, #1 ROIC of 47 peers. All AI revenue excluded from guidance — low bar that could be materially beaten.
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BRBR
Class action filed — channel destocking hits core shakes revenue for first time
Feb 2026
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Caution
Premier Protein RTD market share fell 500bps to 25%. Securities class action filed. Core shakes revenue turned negative for first time. Brand remains #1 in RTD protein — channel reset, not collapse. GLP-1 tailwind structural. Two clean quarters needed before re-entry.
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SAFE
Only public ground lease REIT at 0.41× book — $220M new originations in Q2 2025
Mar 2026
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Income
Safehold closed $220M in new originations in Q2 2025. Net margin improved from 29.3% → 30.4%. Stock at 0.41× book — P/E #1 of 17 REIT peers — because rising rates compressed long-duration lease values. The 5.23% dividend pays while waiting for rate-driven re-rating.
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